CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the current budget and economic outlook and highlights the effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher tariffs, and lower immigration on CBO's baseline budget and economic projections.
In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion, and federal debt rises to 120 percent of GDP in 2036. Economic growth strengthens in 2026 and moderates in later years.
