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For fiscal year 2012 (which ends on September 30), the federal budget deficit will total $1.1 trillion, CBO estimates, marking the fourth year in a row with a deficit of more than $1 trillion. That projection is down slightly from the $1.2 trillion deficit that CBO projected in March. At 7.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), this year’s deficit will be three-quarters as large as the deficit in 2009 when measured relative to the size of the economy.

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Under current law, a sharp reduction in the federal budget deficit between 2012 and 2013 will cause the economy to contract, the Congressional Budget Office projects, but will also put federal debt on a path more likely to be sustainable over time. To illustrate the effects of fiscal tightening, CBO compared its projections under current law (the "baseline" projections) with projections under an alternative set of policies — two scenarios in a broad spectrum of choices.

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Today CBO released An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022. The report, issued annually in the late summer, contains the agency’s updated economic and budget projections spanning the period from 2012 through 2022. CBO also published an infographic about the fiscal tightening scheduled to occur in 2013 and its economic consequences.

Key aspects of our projections are illustrated in the figures below.

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This table provides supplemental information about policy alternatives that affect the tax code contained in Table 1-5 in CBO’s August 2012 report An Update to the Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.

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This file supplements information in Chapter 1 of CBO’s August 2012 report An Update to the Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.

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This document presents in Excel the tables from Chapter 1 of CBO’s August 2012 report An Update to the Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.

data or technical information

This file supplements information in CBO's August 2012 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.

data or technical information

This file supplements information in CBO's August 2012 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.