New from CBO


The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023

report

Economic growth will remain slow this year, CBO anticipates, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes that are scheduled to occur under current law. After this year, economic growth will speed up, CBO projects, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels.

 

Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary Paths

report

Federal debt held by the public now exceeds 70 percent of the nation’s annual output (gross domestic product, or GDP) and stands at a higher percentage than in any year since 1950. Under an assumption whereby current laws generally remain unchanged, federal debt will be 77 percent of GDP in 2023, CBO projects. Such a large amount of federal debt will reduce the nation’s output and income below what would occur if the debt was smaller, and it raises the risk of a fiscal crisis (in which the government would lose the ability to borrow money at affordable interest rates).

 

Key Assumptions in Projecting Potential GDP—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Budget Projections—February 2013 Baseline Projections

data or technical information

 

Historical Budget Data—February 2013 Baseline Projections

data or technical information

Corrected: On February 5, 2013, the historical tables were reposted with a correction to the totals for defense and nondefense spending in 2012 (corresponding corrections were also made to the total spending as a percentage of GDP) in Table 4.

 

Estimates of Potential GDP and the Related Unemployment Rate, January 1991 to February 2013

data or technical information

 

Baseline Economic Forecast—February 2013 Baseline Projections

data or technical information

 

Individual Income Tax Receipts and the Individual Tax Base—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Child Support Collections—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Child Support Enforcement—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Supplemental Nutrition Program—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Children's Health Insurance Program—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Medicare—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

USDA Mandatory Farm Programs—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Unemployment Compensation—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Supplemental Security Income—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Social Security Trust Fund—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Social Security Disability Insurance—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Military Retirement—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Medicaid—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Highway Trust Fund Accounts—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Foster Care and Adoption Assistance—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Federal Programs that Guarantee Mortgages—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

Child Nutrition Programs—February 2013 Baseline

data or technical information

 

 


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